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Decide whether to ship on conflicting evidence

AI Product & Experimentation · 3 to 4 hours

Decide whether to ship on conflicting evidence

Check the validity of a synthetic A/B test of an AI coach, compute its rates, intervals, and costs, and defend a release decision when offline ratings, immediate metrics, and matured outcomes disagree.

Hard
System Design

4 h

Premium

Overview

Decide whether to ship an AI feature when offline scores, immediate metrics, matured outcomes, and cost disagree. The level is practiced on one synthetic coach experiment: check the design, compute every rate and interval by hand, and write a decision memo that states its limits. Offline evaluation mechanics belong to Evaluation & Observability.

Study time: 3 to 4 hours

Interview format: System design discussion with calculations and a decision memo

By the end you can

  • State an experiment's estimand per assigned unit and explain what its outcome does and does not measure
  • Check the assignment ratio, exposure, outcome maturity, and attrition before reading an effect
  • Compute rates, differences, and 95% intervals and read them against benefit and harm thresholds
  • Explain why offline scores, immediate metrics, and matured online outcomes can disagree
  • Price an effect as incremental cost per additional success, with its uncertainty
  • Write a decision memo with scope, owner, rollback trigger, next experiment, and reversal evidence

Prerequisites

Helpful background: Comfort with proportions, standard errors, and chi-square tests helps.

This topic covers user outcomes, baselines, online experiments, cost guardrails, and ship decisions. Evaluation & Observability covers offline evaluation mechanics.

In this guide

  1. Define the causal question
  2. Resolve offline and online disagreement
  3. Assignment, exposure, and sample ratio
  4. Interference and experiment infrastructure
  5. Delayed outcomes and attrition
  6. Intervals and decision thresholds
  7. Interim looks, multiplicity, and segments
  8. Economics of the decision
  9. Scenario: the coach experiment
  10. Work the evidence table
  11. Failure-injection checks
  12. Decision memo and rollout
  13. Write the decision memo

Hard questions are part of Premium: the study guide, reference answer, rubric, and exercises unlock with Premium.

Practice the interview question

Answer it in your own words before you look at the reference answer.